Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump (2024)

William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics

We are entering the heat of the campaign, and the race remains incredibly close by any measure. We’ve updated these pages to combine our two previous averages, one of which tracked polls that included Robert F. Kennedy Jr., into one. We also now have enough polls to publish averages in all seven of the core battleground states, though there remain relatively few polls in other states since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the ticket. But the pace of polling will pick up after Labor Day, and we will add more state averages soon. Updated Aug. 31

Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling

Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.

Albert SunGraphics reporter

President Biden’s poor debate performance in June shook up a race that had been relatively stable in the polls. After the debate and the assassination attempt against Trump, the national polling average widened to Trump +3 before Biden announced he would leave the race. As Harris has consolidated support among Democrats, polls have shown her gaining ground.

William P. DavisDirector, Election Data Analytics

Biden had trailed Trump in the national polling average almost every day this year, and he had also faced a deficit in the states needed to reach 270 electoral votes. After June’s presidential debate, the gap widened, and as Biden ended his campaign, polls found him down three points nationally and four or more points in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. These averages are now archived.

Albert SunGraphics reporter

In the weeks after the debate, Biden’s position deteriorated in three states crucial to his re-election — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — as well as in other swing states where he had already been trailing by four to five points.

Albert SunGraphics reporter

Biden’s path to the presidency narrowed as his standing in the swing-state polls dropped, most likely a factor in his decision to drop out of the race.

Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling

In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off.

Nate CohnChief political analyst

Before bowing out of the race, Biden had been trailing Trump in the polls for essentially 10 straight months.